ASTS Stock: SpaceX Falcon 9 Pause Delays Bluebirds 14-16

AST SpaceMobile earnings are Nov 9, and SpaceX just paused Falcon 9 for 6 weeks. What it means for ASTS and the Bluebird launch rush.

Anpanman discusses the latest AST SpaceMobile news ahead of earnings. He starts with a hedge fund factor analysis that puts ASTS stock down 8% once momentum, growth and low quality earnings factors are stripped out. Then he covers the reported six-week SpaceX Falcon 9 pause tied to the first Starship launch from Florida. He explains why Bluebirds 14 and 16 sit at Astrotech, how year-end launches could get backloaded, and what the Amazon Vulcan launch on November 13 and a possible Blue Origin New Glenn return to flight in December mean for the satellite schedule.

Next, Anpanman breaks down SpaceX's filing to use the Grain Management 800 MHz spectrum for supplemental coverage from space. The filing signals SpaceX wants low band direct-to-cell service globally, which puts MNOs on notice. He also digs into Tim Farrar's rumor that Amazon will buy Viasat, why Viasat's L-band spectrum is worth less without Ligado, and why Amazon could be a bigger threat to MNOs than Starlink. He touches on Mike Sievert stepping down from T-Mobile.

Finally, he walks through tomorrow's FCC meeting on freeing up 482 MHz of spectrum for direct-to-cell use and why non-contiguous bands could be a big positive for AST SpaceMobile. He closes with audience questions on a T-Mobile agreement, New Glenn launch risk, the Ligado approval and the midterm political landscape.

00:00 Introduction

00:20 ASTS stock performance and factor analysis

02:13 SpaceX Falcon 9 six-week pause

03:36 Why Bluebirds went to Astrotech

07:06 Shipping boxes and launch cadence

09:14 Year-end launch backlog

10:37 Vulcan Nov 13 and New Glenn return to flight

13:35 Antonov and composite rings for Midland

15:24 SpaceX Grain Management spectrum filing

24:06 Amazon-Viasat acquisition rumor

37:05 Why MNOs may fear Amazon

44:16 Mike Sievert steps down from T-Mobile

46:45 Would Amazon buy AST SpaceMobile?

50:47 FCC meeting and spectrum agenda

58:26 Q&A: T-Mobile, New Glenn risk, Ligado

1:03:01 Midterms and political risk

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