AST SpaceMobile Could Jump SpaceX's Launch Line

AST SpaceMobile ASTS stock at $40: Kook breaks down the launch priority code theory, the Falcon 9 pause, and Viasat's spectrum fight.

Kook opens by re-underwriting the ASTS stock thesis after a brutal week, using AI to dig through filings. He focuses on AST SpaceMobile's spectrum position, including the 2 GHz auctions in Europe, the new Chilean award, and a loose theory that European MNOs could bid for Viasat's L-band through a JV. He also argues that Viasat's spectrum value may be shrinking.

The main thread is launch. Kook explains why he thinks AST SpaceMobile may receive government priority codes under DPAS, pointing to radar work, SDA-related STAs, hiring data, and the Golden Dome sensing layer. He covers the SpaceX pause, open Falcon 9 capacity, the Cygnus NG-25 launch on November 29 as a possible tell, and the ULA and Blue Origin launch outlook.

He also covers production and the wider direct-to-cell race. Topics include employee retention in Midland, 40 composite rings on site, Rakuten and other satellite partners, Starlink and a potential SpaceX MVNO, antitrust risk, and the status of the Ligado FCC docket ahead of earnings on November 9.

00:00 Introduction

01:06 2 GHz Auctions and European MNOs

02:19 Chile Spectrum Win

04:09 Launch Concerns and SpaceX Capacity

06:21 Priority Code Theory (DPAS)

10:57 Viasat, Tim Ferrar and Abel in Spain

13:06 SpaceX Pause and Falcon 9 Manifest

15:09 Talent Flow and Retention

16:52 Composite Rings and Production

19:44 STA Filings and Golden Dome Radar

21:03 Rakuten and Global Spectrum Portfolio

22:35 Cygnus NG-25 Test and Small Markets

26:18 Google Space Data Center

28:27 Big Tech Spectrum Ambitions

33:03 Starlink Economics and MVNO Questions

37:46 SpaceX Antitrust Risk

40:23 Cost of Building an MNO

42:15 ULA, Blue Origin and Launch Market

45:07 Ligado FCC Docket

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