ASTS Stock Down 70%: SpaceX Spectrum Deal Explained

ASTS stock crashed from $130 to $40. Kook breaks down AST SpaceMobile, SpaceX's spectrum move, and the launch clues that keep him locked in.

Kook opens with a brutal week for ASTS stock, which fell about 70% as SpaceX's apparent purchase of the Grain spectrum shocked generalist investors. He explains the "terror of prices," what he got wrong, why he stays focused on terminal value, and why AST SpaceMobile doesn't owe anyone a flood of press releases while launch contracts, J-LEO, and Golden Dome play out.

From there Kook lays out his launch "murder mystery" theory covering Amazon's unused Falcon 9 slots, ULA capacity, and New Glenn's return. He also covers the unusual FCC filings and low-power Grain spectrum testing, the possible NSSL angle, J-LEO and Mitsubishi H3, and new Brazil MNO deals.

He also looks at the European MNO consortium of Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefonica, and Vodafone bidding for MSS spectrum, and what that means for direct-to-cell competition with Starlink. The episode closes with new AST SpaceMobile hires from Boingo and Google, the e-band filing, and why Kook expects a launch date for the next satellite batch soon.

00:00 Introduction

01:29 SpaceX, the Grain spectrum, and the shock

03:55 Secular winners and holding through crashes

05:54 Hubris, arrogance, and lessons learned

08:25 Capitulation, social proof, and market panic

10:55 Snapback potential and the macro backdrop

12:24 Expert calls on T-Mobile and Starlink

14:46 Why substantive news beats press releases

19:12 The launcher murder mystery: Amazon, ULA, Falcon 9

21:53 Grain spectrum testing and NSSL theories

25:29 J-LEO and Mitsubishi H3

28:15 Brazil MNO deals

29:32 Price vs value and Blue Origin's return

30:56 Strategic value and buyout thinking

34:40 European MNO consortium bids for MSS spectrum

38:48 Viasat, Iridium, and the Ligado docket

41:22 Elon, Europe, and building a mobile network

51:03 New hires: Boingo CTO and ex-Google commercial chief

56:02 New Glenn, bandwidth demand, and Elon's call

59:06 Next week: e-band and a launch date

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