Is AST SpaceMobile the Only Counter to Starlink?

Starlink eyes 80,000 cell sites and MNOs sell off. Anpanman breaks down what it means for AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) and direct-to-cell.

In this episode, Anpanman reacts to news that SpaceX is exploring a terrestrial network and talking to Crown Castle about roughly 80,000 cell sites. He explains why carriers and the ASTS stock sold off, and why he argues the news makes AST SpaceMobile more strategically important as the satellite counter to Starlink. He also covers spectrum, including C-band and the lack of low band, and why satellite coverage is becoming table stakes for every MNO.

Anpanman then walks through the international picture: the European joint venture of Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefonica and Vodafone, a possible push for S-band spectrum, and three regional Brazilian operators with 700 MHz commercial agreements. He also covers Claro, Tim and Vivo, the Rakuten visit to Midland, the J-LEO joint venture, and a Scotiabank upgrade of ASTS.

Finally, Anpanman looks at Amazon and Globalstar, T-Mobile's Starlink partnership as a business case study, a possible Deutsche Telekom and T-Mobile merger, and why SpaceX buying a carrier would face FCC and DOJ hurdles.

00:00 Introduction

00:16 MNOs sell off on SpaceX terrestrial network news

01:04 Crown Castle talks and 80,000 cell sites

01:34 Spectrum, C-band and cable's WiFi failure

03:27 Why ASTS is the strategic counter

04:51 Satellite becomes table stakes for MNOs

08:12 Europe and Brazil opportunity

09:27 Risk-off market and record short interest

10:45 SpaceX economics of a terrestrial buildout

14:13 Rakuten tweet controversy

14:50 Scotiabank upgrades ASTS

18:04 Rakuten visit to Midland and J-LEO

22:43 European joint venture and S-band spectrum

24:48 Brazil regional operators and 700 MHz

27:30 Claro, Tim and Vivo

29:26 Amazon and Globalstar

31:15 T-Mobile's Starlink own goal

33:22 Deutsche Telekom and T-Mobile merger

36:54 Could SpaceX buy an MNO?

40:03 Closing thoughts and conviction

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