AST SpaceMobile - Why Space Stocks Keep Falling

AST SpaceMobile ASTS stock sells off with the whole space sector. Anpanman breaks down the macro, launch timing, and Starlink news.

Anpanman discusses a brutal day for ASTS stock, as rates, oil at a 12-year high, Iran headlines, and a violent rotation out of momentum and growth hit every space name. He explains why Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, and the neo-clouds are all down together, and why the drawdown since May looks macro-driven rather than company-specific. He also covers SpaceX earnings, neo-cloud CapEx risk, and the SpaceX lockup expiry.

The episode then turns to investor psychology and risk management. Anpanman walks through what would have happened if you sold AST SpaceMobile at $130, why most people would have bought back lower, and the 50-70% drawdown test every holder should run. He also recaps the European MNO press releases, the commitment to initial direct-to-cell service in 5 markets by year end, and the 3 satellites waiting at Cape Canaveral for a launch date.

Finally, Anpanman looks at the launch landscape, including SpaceX, Blue Origin, and ULA returning to service, and what that means for the satellite buildout. He closes with the Wall Street Journal report that Trump called Musk to lift Starlink limits in Ukraine, why that strengthens the case for sovereign and diversified suppliers, and his own lessons from 2008 on protecting your mental health.

00:00 Introduction

00:08 Rates, Treasuries and AI credit crowding

01:38 Iran headlines and oil at a 12-year high

02:53 Factor moves: momentum vs value

03:28 SpaceX earnings, neo-cloud risk and lockup

06:19 The drawdown since May

08:35 Friend asks if something bad is coming

10:14 European MNO press releases and 5-market service

12:09 Planet Labs down 75%

16:56 What if you had sold the top in May?

21:12 The 50-70% drawdown test

25:39 Space names down today

26:23 Weathering the storm: hold, buy or sell

29:37 Launch date watch: 3 satellites at the Cape

32:11 SpaceX anti-competitive risk and regulators

34:47 Blue Origin and ULA return to service

39:38 Live Q&A

48:45 Trump, Musk and Starlink in Ukraine

56:06 Lessons from 2008

🎙️ Catch all episodes on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5u6rTxenTvGw4STNbjswAk

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