Anthropic IPO: $1.48T Value vs a $2T Price Tag

We take apart Anthropic's 416-page IPO prospectus with Damodaran's valuation: revenue up 1,400%, but $473B in compute commitments that work like debt, a BB+ rating and a five-class share structure. His optimistic base case puts intrinsic value at about $1.48T, while expected IPO pricing of $1.5T to $2T leaves no margin of safety.

Chapters

(0:00) Anthropic's IPO: A Deep Value X-Ray

(0:46) Great Technology Isn't Great Investment

(2:05) Business Model and Competitive Position

(2:52) Revenue: The Boom and the Brakes

(5:52) Profitability: The Operating Leverage Trap

(6:53) The Intrinsic Value Engine

(7:34) Profitability: The Operating Leverage Trap

(8:12) Capital Allocation and Hidden Debt

(9:35) Three Existential Risks

(11:18) The Governance Dealbreaker

(14:36) The Intrinsic Value Engine

(14:56) Business Model and Competitive Position

(15:17) The Intrinsic Value Engine

(15:37) Valuation and Margin of Safety

(16:15) Bull vs Bear Scenarios

(16:55) The Verdict for Long-Term Investors

(18:34) Apps for Intelligent Value Investors

(19:00) Get the free apps

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