Alphabet (GOOGL) — Neutral? Alphabet's $205B Bet Turns Google Into an AI Utility

Neutral on Alphabet (GOOGL) as of 2026-11-15: $205B FY2026 capex. Google Cloud is growing 81.8% a year, but a $205B capex program pushed Alphabet's Q2 free cash flow below zero, and its $9.11 headline EPS falls to $2.85 once paper gains are stripped out. We look at owner earnings, the depreciation flag and a reverse DCF to see how $320.58 compares with our estimated intrinsic-value range.

Chapters

(0:00) Alphabet Deep Value Snapshot

(1:38) Thesis: Asset-Light to Asset-Heavy

(2:19) How Alphabet Makes Money

(3:00) Competitive Position and Wide Moat

(5:28) Financial X-Ray: Returns vs Capex

(6:10) Forensic Adjustments and Owner Earnings

(8:30) Financial X-Ray: Returns vs Capex

(9:53) Capital Allocation Report Card

(10:55) Forensic Adjustments and Owner Earnings

(13:02) Core Debate: Cloud vs FCF

(14:41) Pre-Mortem: Structural Risks

(16:46) Reverse DCF and Margin of Safety

(17:45) Valuation Scenarios

(18:24) Reverse DCF and Margin of Safety

(19:23) Final Verdict and Stance

(21:27) DeepValues Apps and Resources

(21:53) Get the free apps

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