America’s Asian Allies Prepare for a U.S. Retreat | Silk and Steel

Is the United States losing its ability to dominate Asia?

In this episode of the Silk and Steel Podcast, Carl Zha is joined by Australian economist and geopolitical analyst Dr. Warwick Powell for a wide-ranging discussion about the changing balance of power from the Persian Gulf to East Asia.

The conversation begins with the continuing war involving Iran and the strategic consequences of the Strait of Hormuz. Dr. Powell argues that the conflict could have consequences far beyond the battlefield, particularly through disruptions to oil, diesel and other petroleum-derived products.

The discussion then turns to a much bigger question: what happens when America’s allies begin preparing for a world in which the U.S. can no longer guarantee their security?

Japan’s accelerating remilitarization becomes a major focus. Powell examines the convergence of Japanese domestic politics, economic policy and concerns about the reliability of the American security umbrella. He argues that Japan’s military buildup could ultimately make the country more independent — potentially creating a problem for Washington itself.

Carl and Warwick also examine the implications for Taiwan and China, including the Taiwan government’s increasingly confrontational posture, PLA activity around the island and Beijing’s expanding maritime presence.

The conversation then shifts to China’s economic and technological transformation.

Why is Washington restricting Chinese humanoid robots and other advanced technologies? What does the contrast between American restrictions on Chinese robots and China’s response with tariffs on American agricultural products reveal about the changing structure of the two economies?

Powell also challenges the popular narrative that the Chinese economy is on the verge of collapse. Instead, he describes an economy undergoing a difficult structural transformation — from property-led growth toward manufacturing, technology, infrastructure, renewable energy and urban renewal.

Among the key themes:

• The strategic consequences of the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz
• Why oil shortages may become a diesel problem, not simply an oil problem
• The changing U.S. position in the Persian Gulf
• Why America's Asian allies may be preparing for a weaker U.S. security presence
• Japan's accelerating remilitarization
• The economic risks of Japanese "military Keynesianism"
• Japan's dependence on Chinese rare earth supply chains
• Taiwan's political strategy and Beijing's response
• Why U.S. efforts to contain China may be producing the opposite result
• China's dominance in robotics and advanced manufacturing
• The growing technological divide between China and the United States
• Why China's economy is not simply "collapsing"
• China's domestic demand, money circulation and supply-chain finance
• The restructuring of China's property sector
• China's next phase of urban renewal
• Renewable energy, green hydrogen and China's future energy system
• How China's industrial exports are transforming the Global South

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