347: The Housing Shortage Explained

We finally did it. We sat down with the man behind the numbers AND we recorded it live at the NAR podcast studio in Chicago.

 

If you've ever been at a dinner party, a showing, or a closing table and gotten hit with "so... how's the market?", this episode is for you. We got to chat with Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, and y'all, we had SO many questions. We're the data nerds who cover the NAR Home Buyers and Sellers Profile Report every single year, so getting face time with the person behind all that research? It was kind of a big deal for us.

 

Dr. Yun has been at NAR since 2000 and stepped into the Chief Economist role in 2008 right in the middle of the foreclosure crisis. He's testified before Congress, appeared on C-SPAN, and was recognized by the Wall Street Journal for having one of the closest forecasts for 2024. Basically, if there's someone you want breaking down housing market trends for Realtors, it's him.

 

We cover a lot of ground in this one, from the housing shortage and what's actually being done about it, to the lock-in effect, affordability challenges for first-time buyers, capital gains tax reform, and what a "sweet spot" interest rate would even look like. Dr. Yun also shares something we weren't expecting, a really personal story about his family immigrating to the U.S. and how home ownership shaped his perspective on wealth and the American dream.

 

Here's what we cover in this episode:

• Why the answer to "how's the market?" is always local — and how to explain that to clients

• The housing shortage by the numbers (hint: we're still millions of units short)

• Why the median age of first-time buyers hitting 40 is "the most depressing statistic" of last year

• The lock-in effect: who it really impacts and why it may be loosening

• Why 6% isn't actually a high rate historically but still feels impossible for today's buyers

• How home prices rising 50% since pre-COVID has changed the affordability conversation

• The capital gains tax exemption that hasn't been updated in 30 years (and why that matters for your sellers AND your investment properties)

• What the Housing for the 21st Century Act could actually do

• How investors releasing rental properties could help the first-time buyer shortage

• What we need to build annually to get out of the housing shortage

Key Quotes & Takeaways:

• "Is it a good time to buy? That's not the right question. Do you want to build wealth over time or not?" Dr. Lawrence Yun

• "Your house was $60,000. Their rate is 6% AND the house is $400,000. It's not the same math." Alissa

• "Median age of the first-time buyer is now 40. That is the most depressing statistic of last year." Dr. Lawrence Yun

• "I had 24 showings and five offers in one day at $175K. The same week, a $500K listing could sit for 50 days. Same market. Totally different world." Katy

• "If you are listening to this podcast, you are already ahead." Dr. Lawrence Yun

Products, People & Previous Episodes Mentioned:

• NAR Home Buyers and Sellers Profile Report(2025 in episode 338)

• NAR Affordability Index

• NAR Existing Home Sales Statistics

• Housing for the 21st Century Act (bipartisan housing legislation)

• Ability to Repay Act (post-2008 mortgage reform legislation)

• Blue Chip Council (economic forecasting panel)

• Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey

• Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University

• Hustle Humbly Community

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