EP1684 Part 4 of 5 | El Niño and the Growing Risk to Global Tea Supply (Jem McDowall) Map It Forward

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Episode Description

This is part 4 of a new 5-part series on The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast by Map It Forward, hosted by Lee Safar. Our guest on the podcast for this series is Jem McDowall, VP at Universal Commodities.

In this episode, Lee and Jem examine how El Niño could affect the global tea industry far beyond the farm.

Jem explains that early warning signs are already visible across major producing regions, including unusually dry conditions in East Africa, Malawi, and Indonesia, along with severe flooding in Assam and southern China.

The concern is not simply lower yields.

Tea depends on a narrow range of conditions for healthy growth, and both excessive rainfall and drought can damage crop quality and production. Extreme weather can also wash out roads and bridges, disrupt local transport, delay exports, and interfere with shipping routes.

Jem explains that this risk is arriving at a particularly vulnerable moment.

After roughly a decade of oversupply, global tea supply and demand have moved much closer to balance. That means the industry has far less excess production available to absorb a major disruption.

The conversation also explores another layer of risk: fertilizer.

Although fertilizer prices and availability have improved from recent peaks, costs remain elevated, and some farmers have already reduced applications. Jem explains how delayed distribution, reduced use, or fertilizer being washed away by heavy rain can further weaken bush health and future productivity.

Lee and Jem also discuss the broader consequences of rising food prices and why smallholders may choose to divert fertilizer, abandon tea, or replace tea bushes with crops that provide faster or more reliable returns.

That matters because around 65% of global tea production comes from smallholders.

If farmers uproot tea rather than simply leave bushes temporarily unmanaged, replacing that production can take years.

The result is a tea industry facing climate risk, input risk, logistics risk, and shrinking production buffers at the same time.

Connect with Jem McDowall here:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jem-mcdowall-826932b/

Universal Commodities:

https://uctt.com/

If you found this episode valuable, make sure you’re subscribed to the podcast and follow along for the rest of this 5-part series.

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