EP1685 Part 5 of 5 | What Will the Tea Industry Look Like in 20 Years? (Jem McDowall) Map It Forward

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Episode Description

This is part 5 of a new 5-part series on The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast by Map It Forward hosted by Lee Safar. Our guest on the podcast for this series is Jem McDowall, VP at Universal Commodities.

In the final episode of this series, Lee and Jem look ahead at what the next 20 years could bring for the global tea industry.

Rather than predicting a completely different future, Jem argues that many of the changes already underway are likely to accelerate.

One of the biggest is the continued bifurcation of the tea market.

At one end are highly efficient, mass-produced commodity teas. At the other are differentiated, artisan and specialty products such as matcha, hojicha, whole-leaf teas, and origin-driven offerings.

The producers caught between those two models may face the greatest pressure.

Lee and Jem compare this with the increasingly K-shaped coffee market, where businesses are being pushed toward either greater scale and efficiency or stronger differentiation and higher value.

They also explore how consumer preferences are changing. Convenience products such as bottled and ready-to-drink tea continue to grow, while consumers at the premium end are looking for individuality, quality, origin, experience, and new flavor formats.

Jem argues that tea also needs to do a better job telling the stories of its producing regions. Some origins produce exceptional tea but have failed to build the same recognition and narrative value as more famous regions.

The conversation then turns to one of agriculture’s biggest long-term challenges: succession.

Younger generations are increasingly reluctant to take over farms, and Jem says tea is facing many of the same problems already visible in coffee.

They also discuss liquidity, rising commodity prices, and the possibility that stronger tea prices could create unexpected financial pressure for traders, factories, and producers that need significantly more working capital to move the same volume of product.

The episode closes with a broader question about the future of agricultural supply chains.

If governments, NGOs, and industry continue responding to structural problems by simply producing more, do conditions actually improve?

Or does increased production continue suppressing prices and making it harder to improve wages, working conditions, and producer viability?

As Jem puts it: more is not necessarily better. Better is better.

Connect with Jem McDowall here:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jem-mcdowall-826932b/

Universal Commodities:

https://uctt.com/

If you found this episode valuable, make sure you’re subscribed to the podcast and follow along for the rest of this 5-part series.

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About Map It Forward

The Daily Coffee Pro is produced by Map It Forward, supporting coffee professionals globally across the supply chain.

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