THE PROTEIN PULSE USDA WASDE Special Report | November 10th, 2026

THE PROTEIN PULSE USDA WASDE Special Report | November 10th, 2026 Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is the USDA WASDE Special Report for November 10th, 2026, from The Sparks Group. A tighter U.S. corn crop meets uneven protein supplies.

SHAWN: A one hundred forty-one million bushel cut in corn production, and USDA lowers its corn price forecast. Soybean stocks tighten, but the meal forecast doesn't budge. Beef and chicken production are heading lower while pork has more supply near term. Black is white, up is down. That's what happens when you try to run an entire protein business off one headline. The corn balance sheet is tighter. Fine. Does that mean the feed mill down the road raised its delivered offer? Not necessarily. Soybeans are rallying on stronger demand. Does that automatically make soybean meal more expensive? USDA isn't saying that. And the livestock side is a different chessboard altogether. Less beef in 2027 doesn't make today's cattle market tight at every plant. More pork doesn't mean every primal is a bargain. Reduced chicken production doesn't tell you what a breast or leg quarter will cost in March. Here's where buyers get hurt. Treating projections like purchase orders. A USDA estimate doesn't fill a truck. A futures quote doesn't give you a landed price. Get the basis. Get the freight. Get the specifications and the delivery window. Then see whether the margin still works. The report is information. Your executable offer is reality.

HOST: USDA's November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates tightened the domestic corn outlook, reduced soybean inventories despite a larger crop, and raised global grain availability. The protein changes were just as consequential. USDA lowered beef and broiler production projections for 2026 and 2027, increased 2026 pork production, and raised beef import expectations. These changes do not create one common market direction. Feed cost exposure, livestock availability, export competition, and finished-product prices need separate decisions. The immediate executive priority is to test existing coverage and margin assumptions against the revised outlook rather than react to an isolated bullish or bearish headline. For cattle feeders, hog producers, and poultry integrators, the feed equation matters. For processors, the availability and value of finished protein matters just as much. Neither can be settled by a national average.

SHAWN: USDA lowered its 2026/27 corn yield forecast from one hundred eighty-one point two to one hundred seventy-nine point six bushels per acre. Production dropped one hundred forty-one million bushels to fifteen point eight nine three billion. Ending stocks fell ninety-one million bushels to one point seven five eight billion, despite twenty-five million bushel reductions in both feed and residual use and exports. Yet USDA reduced its season-average farm price forecast ten cents to four sixty a bushel. A tighter balance sheet increases sensitivity to weather, freight, exports, and basis. It does not establish an immediate increase in every delivered corn price. Compare feed coverage against current regional bids, basis, freight, and delivery months. Don't confuse national stocks with the invoice at your mill. A lower national farm-price estimate and a tighter supply outlook can coexist because they measure different things. An average forecast and the projected inventory cushion. USDA increased Argentina's corn production forecast two million metric tons to fifty-seven million, and Brazil's by the same amount to one hundred forty-one million. World corn ending stocks increased to two hundred eighty-one point nine four million metric tons. The three hundred sixteen point two two million ton figure sometimes cited in coverage is for all coarse grains, not corn alone. Larger South American supply could increase competition for U.S. exports. But global tonnage has to move through ports, ships, and inland transportation before it becomes an executable feed alternative. Watch export competitiveness and nearby basis separately. Global grain abundance is not a local delivered quote.

HOST: USDA raised soybean yield from fifty-three point one to fifty-three point three bushels per acre and production to four point five seven four billion bushels. Exports increased twenty-five million bushels to one point seven two zero billion, pulling U.S. ending stocks down from three hundred fifteen million to three hundred million bushels. World ending stocks slipped to one hundred twenty-three point five million metric tons. The soybean farm price forecast rose ten cents to twelve ten a bushel. The soybean meal forecast, however, stayed at three hundred forty a short ton. Meal pricing also depends on crush economics, soybean oil demand, and regional availability. Pork and poultry operators cannot equate a soybean futures move with an identical change in ration costs. Reprice physical soybean meal offers and check the meal-to-grain relationship before adjusting forward feed budgets. Buyers should also distinguish soybean export demand from domestic crush demand. USDA increased the former while leaving the latter unchanged. That matters for the volume of meal entering domestic feed channels. U.S. wheat ending stocks increased slightly to seven hundred forty-three million bushels. Global wheat stocks rose four point eight million metric tons to two hundred eighty point eight million. USDA lowered its U.S. farm price forecast ten cents to six twenty a bushel. Wheat may compete with corn in some rations when delivered values, nutrient profiles, and mill capabilities line up. Higher global stocks alone are not proof that substitution makes economic sense for a particular location or species. Run