THE PROTEIN PULSE - Wednesday Watchlist | November 4th, 2026

Wednesday Watchlist | November 4th, 2026 Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for November 4th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Washington doesn't move cattle, but the decisions made there can certainly move markets. These midterm elections have real implications for our industry, from Farm Bill funding and packer oversight to trade policy, tariffs, and beef imports. With cattle supplies tight and beef prices already testing consumers, the next Congress will face some tough decisions. Protecting American producers while keeping beef affordable isn't an easy balancing act. And every policy decision has consequences somewhere along the supply chain. My take? I'm less concerned about which party controls Congress than what their policies mean for cattle availability, processor margins, and protein costs. Political headlines come and go. Supply, demand, and sound procurement decisions are what ultimately drive this business. That's where my focus stays.

HOST: Arizona's latest screwworm detections were in a dog and a horse, not cattle. The twenty-kilometer infested zone imposes movement controls, making veterinary clearance and confirmed crossing schedules important for buyers relying on Mexican cattle. Fresh eighty-fives beef surged twenty-seven eighty-one cents a pound Tuesday while fifties fell two sixty-three cents a pound. That split can change ground-beef ingredient economics overnight. Pork delivered another surprise. Ribs lost nine thirty-five as picnics gained six sixteen, even though the overall cutout barely moved. Southern California exporters face a November 4th port-labor deadline, though terminals were operating normally in the latest November 3rd advisory. KFC's expansion contrasted with Popeyes' weaker U.S. sales, while corn and meal futures declined as Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel rose.

SHAWN: Arizona reported New World Screwworm infestations in a dog October 28th and a horse detected October 31st in Cochise County. A twenty-kilometer infested zone restricts movements and increases surveillance. New Mexico recorded twenty-one infestations in October. Texas reported fourteen infestations and four trapped flies during its cited October period. These detections do not establish infected Arizona cattle. Selected Mexican cattle crossings have resumed operations, while Nogales was scheduled for November 30th. No new crossing closure was reported. Feeders and importers need confirmed veterinary clearance and shipment availability before committing to imported cattle. Choice grade boxed beef increased nineteen cents to three sixty-five twenty-three Tuesday. Select grade gained three forty-three to three fifty-eight thirty-seven, narrowing the spread to six eighty-six. Some Nebraska dressed cattle traded around three forty. Lower cattle costs may support packer gross margins. Plant profitability still depends on yields, sales and operating costs. An industry report put average carcass weights at nine hundred sixty-two pounds, fourteen pounds above the comparable week in 2025. Heavier carcasses support tonnage, but cannot indefinitely replace missing cattle. Fresh eighty-fives rebounded twenty-seven eighty-one cents a pound to three oh nine Tuesday, while fresh fifties declined two sixty-three cents a pound to eighty-one. That divergence changes the relative cost of ground-beef inputs. Buyers should compare specifications and firm supplier quotes instead of inferring a uniform trim-market move. No fresh ninety trade was reportable Tuesday. Its last average was three seventy-one on November 2nd. Imported frozen lean still requires a matched-specification landed-cost comparison. Beef cow culling is projected at seven point three five percent for 2026, down from thirteen point one nine percent in 2022. Reduced culling slows herd contraction without adding breeding capacity. An estimated two hundred thousand additional replacement females may be needed simply to maintain the herd. Drought makes retaining them more expensive. By late October, ninety-six percent of Arkansas beef cows were in drought, including seventy-three percent in extreme drought or worse. Mississippi's share in severe drought or worse increased from eighteen percent in late September to seventy-seven percent by October 27th. Earlier hay feeding and limited forage make the retention decision harder despite strong cow-calf returns. A prior industry outlook forecasts U.S. production in 2027 of twenty-three point nine seven three billion pounds of beef, twenty-seven point five seven eight billion pounds of pork and forty-nine point one oh nine billion pounds of broilers. Presented in 2025, these forecasts are planning benchmarks rather than new November 2026 estimates. Cattle rebuilding, pork slaughter cycles and broiler expansion present different buying risks.

HOST: Tuesday's primals moved in opposite directions. Ribs dropped nine thirty-five to one twenty-five fifteen. Picnics gained six sixteen to fifty-seven ninety-two. And bellies rose one eighty-four to seventy-five ninety-six. Those opposing moves matter more to a cut-specific buyer than the nearly unchanged carcass composite. Buyers can reassess coverage by primal, while processors must match rib, picnic and belly output to distinct demand channels. Longer-term belly prices and ham exports still affect inventory economics. National negotiated hog carcasses averaged forty-five thirty-nine Tuesday, down four sixty-two, while the pork cutout rose fifteen cents to seventy-two forty-three. That widens the spot purchase-to-cutout spread, but formula hogs, owned supply, yields and operating costs determine actual plant margins. Last week's slaughter totaled two point six oh eight million head, up one point one percent year ov