THE PROTEIN PULSE Closing Bell Friday | October 23rd, 2026

Closing Bell Friday | October 23rd, 2026 Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for October 23rd, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: This week's animal-health developments are significant, but they are three different stories, not one industrywide supply problem. The screwworm detections in Texas and New Mexico bring renewed attention to livestock movement requirements in affected areas. Brazil's Newcastle disease case has prompted different poultry import restrictions depending on the destination. Finland's African swine fever detection in wild boar has affected pork exports to China and Japan. What matters commercially is how narrowly or broadly each restriction applies. A regional poultry restriction is not a ban on every Brazilian shipment. A livestock movement zone is not a closure of every border crossing. And an export restriction does not automatically mean a shortage in the domestic market. The takeaway is to understand the specific consequences of each development without assuming a wider disruption than the evidence supports. That's how we separate meaningful market intelligence from unnecessary alarm.

HOST: The first U.S. wildlife screwworm detection, in a Texas elk, has triggered renewed surveillance and zone revisions. A separate beef-cow detection in New Mexico adds livestock-movement concern ahead of a scheduled border-crossing reopening. Poultry trade faces a separate disruption after Newcastle disease was detected in turkeys in Brazil's Santa Catarina state. Mexico and Malaysia suspended covered poultry imports from all Brazil. China, Saudi Arabia and Chile restricted specified products from Santa Catarina. Wisconsin reported another commercial HPAI detection. Alberta reported affected broiler, duck and mixed flocks. Restrictions following an African swine fever detection in Finnish wild boar are disrupting pork sales into China and Japan. Diesel futures sharpened transportation-cost exposure. Four USDA reports due later today will inform next week's outlook.

SHAWN: Cattle on Feed prereport estimates point to fewer placements and marketings. Ahead of today's USDA report, analysts estimate October 1st cattle on feed at one hundred point three percent of a year earlier, up three tenths of a percent. September placements at ninety-one point seven percent, down eight point three percent. And September marketings at ninety-two point eight percent, down seven point two percent. These are prereport analyst estimates, not USDA findings. Boxed-beef prices retreated despite smaller slaughter. Choice closed Thursday at three sixty-nine forty-seven, down three twelve. Select fell four ninety-three to three fifty forty-one. The Choice Select spread widened one eighty-one to nineteen oh six, with one hundred twenty-three negotiated loads. Thursday's estimated cattle slaughter was one hundred three thousand head. Year-to-date slaughter stands seven point two percent below 2025. September beef output fell about six percent year over year despite heavier cattle. January through September beef production totaled eighteen point four one billion pounds versus nineteen point three six billion in 2025. Imported lean beef offers a different price picture. Platts assessed frozen imported nineties at three thirteen C-I-F U.S. East Coast and three zero zero F-C-A East Coast on October 21st. Argentina-origin nineties were indicated around three zero zero at the Philadelphia port of entry for November through December. National fresh eighty-fives averaged three oh two Thursday. National fresh nineties were not established October 22nd. Their last established average was three ninety on October 19th.

HOST: Thursday's belly rebound fails to erase earlier weakness. The pork carcass cutout rose seventy-three cents to seventy-five twenty-three, led by bellies up six ninety-three to eighty-four fifty-nine. Butts declined two ninety-four to ninety-nine sixty-eight. Negotiated hogs averaged sixty-six forty-eight, down one twenty-two, and Thursday slaughter was four hundred ninety-seven thousand head. Processor and producer economics diverge. Sterling estimates packer margins at twelve sixty-two per head for the week ended October 17th, versus six ninety-nine the previous week. Farrow-to-finish returns slipped to seven eighty-four per head from sixteen eighty-seven. January through September pork production totaled twenty point three seven billion pounds, slightly above 2025 despite September's three percent decline. Weekly export sales for October 15th were reported at thirty-seven thousand four hundred seventy-five metric tons. Mexico slowed, while China accounted for seven thousand two hundred seventy-six tons.

SHAWN: Wisconsin reports another commercial HPAI detection. State officials confirmed a thirteen thousand four hundred sixty-three bird commercial flock in Barron County on October 22nd, quarantined the premises and depopulated the birds. These are localized flock losses, not a quantified national chicken-supply change. Alberta losses span different poultry operations. Three commercial flocks confirmed October 1st through 8th totaled a reported seventy-seven thousand seventy-seven affected birds. Sixty-nine thousand one broilers in Strathcona County, two thousand four hundred forty-four duck breeders in Sturgeon County and five thousand six hundred thirty-two mixed broilers, turkeys and geese in Two Hills County. These are flock sizes, not deaths. Brazil's Newcastle restrictions disrupt trade. The reported infection involved commercial turkeys in Santa Catarina, not a confirmed nationwide broiler outbreak. Reported restrictions differ by destination. Mexico and Malaysia cover Brazilian-origin poultry shipments more broadly, whil