THE PROTEIN PULSE - Wednesday Watchlist | November 11th, 2026

THE PROTEIN PULSE Wednesday Watchlist | November 11th, 2026 Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for November 11th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: The algorithms jumped on yesterday's one hundred forty-one million bushel corn cut, but that's only part of the WASDE story. USDA also cut next year's beef production, raised beef imports, and projected more pork with fewer exports. Chicken production forecasts came down, too. Less domestic beef and more projected imports don't automatically put cheaper lean trim on your dock. More pork with weaker exports doesn't mean every primal is a bargain. And a smaller chicken production forecast doesn't erase today's softer breast prices. Here's where enterprise margins get crushed. Treating government forecasts as actual supply. A USDA projection doesn't fill a truck, and a futures quote doesn't add a second shift. Check your specs, delivered costs, freight, and what suppliers can actually commit to. The report tells you where supply may be headed. Your margins depend on what you can buy today.

HOST: WASDE surprises on grain stocks and tightens forward beef supply. Corn carryout fell to one point seven five eight billion bushels, sixty-eight million below survey expectations. Soybean stocks were three hundred million, thirty-six million below. Grain and meal futures rose. USDA cut its 2027 beef production forecast one hundred fifty-five million pounds and increased projected imports one hundred five million pounds, making qualified offshore supply more important. Retail beef inflation outpaces competing proteins. October beef prices rose zero point nine percent, against pork's zero point one percent and chicken's zero point five percent. Steaks gained one point seven percent, ground beef one point two percent and full-service dining zero point seven percent, sharpening menu substitution risk. Processor results reveal different pressures across proteins. JBS reported sharply lower group earnings as its North American beef business improved under one accounting measure, while its pork and poultry earnings deteriorated. Higher cattle costs threaten the beef recovery, while heavier projected pork output tests already-weak processing returns.

SHAWN: Cattle futures extend Monday's recovery. December live cattle settled at two nineteen twenty, up three dollars. February at two twenty-two fifty-eight, up two forty-eight. And January feeders at three twenty-six sixty-eight, up two fifty. The rebound began before WASDE, alongside Tyson's Amarillo announcement, without a measurable causal split. Sparse cash trade and carcass weights still determine the physical supply and packer-margin picture. JBS reported net income of one hundred sixty-four million dollars, down from five hundred eighty-one million. North American beef adjusted EBITDA reached twenty-one million after a forty-six million loss. Tyson's Allied Beef plan targets an additional Amarillo shift by summer 2027, not today. USDA now projects twenty-four point five eight eight billion pounds of beef production in 2027, down one hundred fifty-five million pounds. Its import forecast stands at six point two eight zero billion pounds, up one hundred five million. Packers face tighter domestic supply and increased competition for cattle. Tuesday Choice grade boxed beef closed at three sixty-two ninety-eight, up twenty-four cents, while Select grade lost two eleven to three fifty-one sixty-two. Both finished below their stronger morning indications. USDA estimated Tuesday cattle slaughter at one hundred eleven thousand head. Separately, Platts' November 9th, pre-WASDE assessment put imported nineties at three dollars F-C-A East Coast and three nineteen C-I-F East Coast. Reported South American port-of-entry trades were near three dollars for late-November to early-January delivery. A subsequently corrected New Zealand-origin December C-I-F Philadelphia offer was three ten. Tuesday's USDA fresh nineties report established no national price. The last domestic value is not a Tuesday trade.

HOST: Weak pork earnings meet more domestic supply. JBS reported U.S. pork revenue down fifteen point three zero percent to one point eight eight billion and adjusted EBITDA down eighty-three percent to thirty-seven million. USDA projects 2026 pork production of twenty-seven point six seven two billion pounds, an increase of thirty-five million, and exports of six point nine seven nine billion pounds, a reduction of seventy-one million. Its 2027 export forecast fell fifty-five million pounds. Domestic clearance matters, particularly for export-oriented primals. December hog futures settled at fifty-five eighty, down eight cents. Tuesday's primal market split sharply. The pork cutout lost one twenty-nine to sixty-nine fifty-two. Loins declined four fifty-two to seventy ninety-seven and bellies fell two eighty-four to sixty-three thirty-five. But picnics added one forty-one to fifty-six forty-five and ribs increased one oh five to one twenty-seven sixty-two. National negotiated hogs averaged thirty-nine eighty-four on a carcass basis, down four eighty-eight. USDA estimated four hundred ninety-five thousand hogs slaughtered Tuesday. Negotiate by primal, not composite. Breast prices fall for a fourth straight week. USDA's boneless skinless breast average declined to one ten F-O-B plant for the week ended November 6th, down one cent on the week and eight cents, or seven point zero three percent, since October 9th. Whole wings averaged one oh seven, slightly lower. A separately based whole-bird composite rose to one eighteen. WASDE trimmed broiler production forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by two hundred forty-three million and one hundred forty-eight million pounds, respective