THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST - Wednesday Watchlist | September 30, 2026

Protein Pulse - Wednesday Watchlist | September 30, 2026

Your Daily Market Update on All Things Protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for September 30, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Tomorrow another one hundred thousand metric tons of lower-duty imported lean opens to the U.S. market. If you’re buying raw material for ground beef, pay attention. Imported lean isn’t a pound-for-pound replacement for fresh domestic nineties. Some processors can’t or won’t use it because of customer specifications or perception. Others can use it, but only to a certain percentage before binding and blending become an issue. And that’s not a knock on the product. I’ve been inside South American meat plants, and the quality and cleanliness are on par with what I’ve seen here in the U.S. If you can use imported lean, maximize it and maximize the margin. If you can’t, you better figure out how — before your competition prices you out of the market.

HOST: Beef: Tuesday slaughter recovered to one hundred eight thousand after Monday’s ninety-five thousand. Choice closed three eighty-three. Select three sixty-four. Year-to-date cattle slaughter remains seven point seven percent below last year. Chicken: Hormel announced this morning it will acquire Brakebush for about one point oh five five billion, adding a roughly one point two billion value-added chicken business heavily focused on foodservice. Pork: hog supplies are tightening, but demand remains the bigger issue. The cutout has lost roughly sixteen percent since early June despite lower slaughter. Diesel: W T I dropped three twenty-two Tuesday while U L S D jumped three percent. Protein freight isn’t following the crude headline.

SHAWN: Tuesday’s cattle kill rebounded to one hundred eight thousand, up from ninety-five thousand Monday and one hundred thousand the previous Tuesday. Week-to-date two hundred three thousand versus two hundred thirty-two thousand eight hundred forty-five last year. Year-to-date twenty point two oh five million, down seven point seven percent. Tuesday’s rebound is important after last week’s short kill. It suggests processing is beginning to normalize, but one day doesn’t replace the production lost last week.

HOST: Choice finished three eighty-three, up two eighteen cents. Select jumped six twenty-five cents to three sixty-four. The Choice-Select spread narrowed to eighteen cents. Sterling estimates feedlots at minus three thirty-five a head while packers are plus one fifty-one. Fed-beef plant utilization fell to seventy-four point six percent last week. Carcasses remain heavy at nine hundred fifty-two pounds. Choice-and-higher grading reached eighty-seven point three percent. Hales points to high-quality Angus and Angus-beef-dairy cross cattle replacing traditional dairy steers as one contributor. Those heavier, better-grading cattle are helping offset some of the pressure from fewer head.

SHAWN: Fresh fifties averaged ninety-two cents Tuesday on more than four hundred sixty-one thousand pounds. USDA called beef trimmings sharply higher with good demand and moderate offerings. No new national nineties or eighty-fives test was established. Tomorrow opens the second one-hundred-thousand-metric-ton tranche of additional lower-duty imported lean. Latest weekly U.S. beef imports totaled thirty-eight thousand eight hundred twenty-five metric tons, up thirty-two point nine percent year over year. Australia nine thousand five hundred thirty-nine. Brazil nine thousand one hundred ninety-five. Canada seven thousand three hundred fifty-six. Santa Teresa, Douglas, Columbus, and Nogales historically accounted for roughly eighty percent of U.S. cattle imports from Mexico. If reopening continues and those crossings ultimately return to full capacity, current estimates suggest Mexican cattle supplies could add the equivalent of more than four percent to fed-cattle slaughter by late second quarter twenty twenty-seven.

HOST: Hormel announced this morning it will acquire Brakebush Brothers for about one point oh five five billion, significantly expanding its position in value-added chicken and foodservice. Brakebush generated about one point two billion in sales over the last twelve months, operates five production facilities and two R and D labs, and supplies further-processed chicken to national and regional foodservice operators. Hormel specifically identified value-added chicken as an attractive growth category. They’re not alone. McDonald’s has set a goal of gaining one point five percentage points of chicken market share by twenty thirty while maintaining its leadership position in beef.

SHAWN: USDA called Tuesday’s chicken market about steady. Wogs were moderate. Breasts and tenders were steady. Wings were softer in some sizes. Dark meat was mixed. Year-to-date chicken slaughter remains one point four percent above last year. The Hormel deal is also a bet on what happens downstream. Brakebush takes chicken raw material and turns it into higher-value patties, nuggets, wings, and other foodservice products. Chicken has the supply — and some very large companies are putting more money behind the category.

HOST: U.S. hog inventory stood at seventy-four point three million head on September first, down two percent year over year. June-through-August pigs weaned were also down two percent. Less supply hasn’t translated into stronger pork. Daily Livestock Report estimates the cutout has fallen roughly eighteen dollars a hundredweight, or sixteen percent, since early June. Bellies, hams, and picnics accounted for about eighty-five percent of that decline. Frozen pork stocks were twelve percent above last year, with hams up twenty-six and loins