THE PROTEIN PULSE - Thursday Margin Monitor | November 12th, 2026

THE PROTEIN PULSE Thursday Margin Monitor | November 12th, 2026 Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for November 12th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: The real battle is happening inside your supplier P&Ls. Third-quarter retail beef demand hit a twenty-six year high at nine sixty-three a pound, yet boxed beef cutouts dropped again yesterday, leaving major packers scraping by on a zero point three percent quarterly margin. Meanwhile, pork demand sits at twelve-year lows, even as butts and picnics rally while ribs plunge over seven bucks. Chicken forecasts are shrinking, yet weekly breast prices stay soft. The protein complex isn't moving as a single trade anymore. Treating composite cutouts or annual USDA forecasts as pricing anchors leaves real margin on the table. Don't hedge this environment with generic specs, border assumptions, or broad category averages. Know your supplier's pain points, price each primal on its own math, and test every formula escalator against real-time realization. Complexity isn't a risk if your contracts are built to price it. Time to earn your fourth quarter bonus.

HOST: The beef demand index reached one thirty-one as retail prices climbed six percent. Pork's index fell to eighty-four, its lowest third-quarter reading since 2014. Buyers face opposing consumer signals and uneven wholesale pricing. Brazil shipped approximately three hundred twelve thousand metric tons of poultry to the EU in January through September 2026, versus two hundred thirty-three thousand for all 2025. A November 16th to 17th vote could restore export eligibility. An England-wide prevention zone took effect November 11th, with a poultry housing order effective November 13th for specified keepers. Buyers should check origin eligibility. Brazil's pending EU authorization is a separate decision.

SHAWN: Third-quarter per-capita beef consumption rose to fourteen point six pounds from fourteen point four pounds a year earlier while average retail prices increased six percent to nine sixty-three a pound. The beef demand index reached one thirty-one, up five points and its highest third-quarter level in the 2000 to 2026 series. Choice grade boxed beef fell two seventy-two Wednesday to three sixty twenty-six. Select grade dropped four fifteen to three forty-seven forty-seven. The spread widened to twelve seventy-nine. Estimated cattle slaughter was one hundred seven thousand head, with year-to-date volume seven point one percent below 2025. Rib prices held up better than the broader cutout. USDA forecasts 2026 beef production at twenty-four point seven six two billion pounds and 2027 at twenty-four point five two zero billion pounds on its quarterly-production basis. JBS's North American beef operation posted twenty-one million in third-quarter adjusted EBITDA after a one hundred million second-quarter loss. Its quarterly margin was zero point three percent, with September at three point nine percent. A November 11th industry assessment estimated current-week packer margins at a positive fifteen to forty-five a head. The modeled per-head estimate and JBS's quarterly percentage measure different things.

HOST: Third-quarter pork consumption was twelve pounds per person, unchanged from 2025, while the average retail price fell three percent to four ninety a pound. The pork demand index declined to eighty-four, three points below last year and the weakest third-quarter reading since 2014. The weekly cutout fell thirty-three thirty-eight from its mid-July peak of one oh four eleven to seventy seventy-three last week. Wednesday's daily pork cutout settled at sixty-nine thirty-four, down eighteen cents. Ribs fell seven thirty-five and bellies two ten, while butts rose five thirty-two and picnics three oh three. A November 11th exchange announcement reported record combined lean-hog futures-and-options volume of two hundred nine thousand three hundred sixty-three contracts on November 9th, above the previous two hundred four thousand nine hundred forty-eight contract high set in November 2025. The combined volume reflects increased trading activity. It does not establish a change in net producer hedge positions. Hog producers and processors should evaluate contract-specific liquidity and execution costs before adjusting coverage. USDA raised its 2026 pork production forecast to twenty-seven point six five six billion pounds, while its quarterly-production forecast for 2027 remained twenty-seven point eight two five billion pounds. Wednesday's estimated hog slaughter was four hundred sixty-two thousand head. National negotiated carcass-base hogs averaged thirty-seven fifty-two. USDA reduced its 2026 broiler production projection to forty-nine point four seven five billion pounds and its 2027 quarterly-production estimate to fifty billion pounds. Weekly USDA prices through November 6th put boneless skinless breast at one ten and whole wings at one oh seven, both lower on the week. November 10th consumer research found stronger interest in protein and convenient meat and poultry formats among GLP-1 users. Survey responses alone do not establish chicken sales. England imposed an avian influenza prevention zone with mandatory biosecurity measures on November 11th. From November 13th, a nationwide housing order requires keepers with fifty or more birds, or those selling or giving away birds or poultry products, to house them, subject to specified exceptions. Buyers should check origin-specific control zones and import eligibility. Brazil's pending EU export authorization is a separate regulatory decision. October beef prices increased zero point nine percent from September, while overall food prices rose zero point five percent. Retailers can