Hmatatelné tělo pro umělou inteligenci (Barron’s #30 27. července)

1. The Global Manufacturing & Capital Expenditure Boom (Cover Story)

• A Multi-Capex Expansion: A massive, global construction and reshoring boom is underway, extending far beyond artificial intelligence data centers to national power grids, factory modernization, port upgrades, and supply chain reconfigurations.
• National Security & Industrial Policies: Geopolitical competition has turned industrial policy into a necessity. Major initiatives include the U.S. investing in domestic critical materials like rare earths, Japan proposing $2.3 trillion across 17 sectors, the EU proposing an €800 billion infrastructure and rearmament package, and India investing $170 billion this year to bolster energy resilience.
• Massive Long-Term Capital Flows: Morgan Stanley expects an incremental $10 trillion to be spent on U.S. manufacturing over the next two decades, transitioning the U.S. industrial economy from stagnation to over 3% annual growth.
• Poised Beneficiaries: Key companies facilitating this buildout include Jacobs Solutions (engineering complex biological and industrial projects), United Rentals (equipment rentals), Martin Marietta Materials, Rockwell Automation (industrial automation and robotics), WillScot Holdings, and Grupo Mexico (copper mining and freight rail).

• Accounting Protocol Flattery: Veteran short-seller Jim Chanos warns that current AI profits are being artificially flattered in a manner reminiscent of the dot-com bubble. While hardware sellers like Nvidia book revenues immediately, hyperscaler buyers like Alphabet depreciate these massive capital expenditures over several years, masking immediate cash outflows.
• Alphabet's Capex Surge: Alphabet's stock dropped 7% after raising its capex guidance to 200billion∗∗atthemidpointforthisyear,withMorganStanleyestimatingthatnextyear′sspendingcouldriseto∗∗375 billion, turning its free cash flow sharply negative.
• Tesla's Profit Shortfall: Tesla reported a disappointing Q2 operating profit of $398 million (down from $923 million last year), significantly missing Wall Street expectations of $1.7 billion due to weaker pricing, lower regulatory credit sales, and higher research spending.
• SpaceX Post-IPO Decline: Just over a month since its IPO, SpaceX has recorded one of the weakest postdebut stock performances of any major listing since 2009, dropping 23% from its first-day close of $161 over its first 27 trading days.
• AI-On / AI-Off Dynamics: The S&P 500 fell 0.61% during the week as index flows are increasingly dictated by AI sentiment rather than traditional risk-on/risk-off dynamics. This has led to high market dispersion, with sectors like healthcare and real estate showing zero or negative correlation to the S&P 500.

• Yields and Oil Spikes: Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) hit multiyear highs, while Brent crude oil crossed $100 a barrel following Houthi militant attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea.
• EU De Minimis Exemption Ended: On July 1, the European Union imposed a flat €3 customs duty on parcels under €150, ending a tariff loophole heavily exploited by Chinese e-commerce platforms like Temu and Shein. This protectionist shift is expected to result in higher consumer prices and stickier long-term inflation.

• High-Quality Medtech on Sale: Rotation into high-flying AI stocks has clobbered medical-device shares, creating an excellent opportunity to buy stable businesses with expanding margins and durable cash flows.
• Top Value Picks: Abbott Laboratories (ABT) trades at an attractive 16 times next year’s estimated earnings and has solid growth catalysts in heart devices and diabetes monitoring. Other massive players like Danaher (DHR) and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) are expected to rebound as AI-driven market rotations normalize.

• Guaranteed Income Focus: With a record number of Americans turning 65 and fearing running out of money, annuity sales are hitting unprecedented levels.