Debt, Oil, AI and Bitcoin: A Gradual Print Until It Isn't | James Lavish SLP784

James Lavish explains why he expects a gradual print to turn into a big one, what weak Treasury auctions signal, and what he got wrong about Bitcoin this cycle.

Timestamps

00:00 — Intro

00:48 — Markets: Warsh, Oil and a Narrow Rally

04:22 — How Much Debt Will AI Need?

08:41 — Outgrowing the Debt: A Polite Fiction

10:50 — Brent at $108, 10-Year at 5.13%

13:44 — Weak Auctions and Who Buys Treasuries

15:54 — Oil Shock: Supply, Not Demand

18:03 — If CoreWeave Trips: The Downside Case

19:56 — How the Fed and Treasury Would Respond

24:15 — The Base Case: Growth and Nominal Inflation

28:49 — Big Print or Gradual Print?

32:58 — Gradual Until All Bets Are Off

34:07 — Why Faith in the Dollar Breaks Slowly

38:11 — What James Got Wrong This Cycle

39:54 — Decentralization and Politics as Hurdles

41:59 — JPMorgan's Shift and Career Risk

43:45 — Why Bitcoin Over AI?