Thursday - July 2, 2026
The Dividend Cafe · Jul 2, 2026 · 6:35
The Dividend Cafe · Jul 2, 2026 · 6:35
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Brian Szytel recaps an unusual pre–July 4th market session with the Dow up 594 points (+1.15%), the S&P 500 flat, and the Nasdaq down 0.8% amid a continued unwind in momentum stocks, especially semiconductors, while value and dividend sectors outperformed and the equal-weight S&P beat the cap-weighted index. The key driver was a softer June non-farm payrolls report (57,000 jobs vs. 110,000 expected) with prior-month revisions lower, alongside a slight dip in unemployment to 4.2% driven partly by a falling labor force participation rate (61.5%, lowest since 2021). Rate-hike expectations fell sharply, with Fed futures moving to a 50/50 chance and markets pricing the Fed on hold; Szytel notes a 25 bps move is less important than AI CapEx, margins, earnings, employment, and inflation. Other data included jobless claims at 215K, average hourly earnings at 0.3%, and factory orders down 1.3% in line.
00:00 Holiday Welcome
00:33 Odd Market Snapshot
00:55 Payrolls Surprise
01:57 Rates and Rotation
02:48 No Hike Question
04:02 Other Data Points
04:35 Wrap Up and Wishes
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
