Thursday - May 21, 2026
The Dividend Cafe · May 21, 2026 · 7:33
The Dividend Cafe · May 21, 2026 · 7:33
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Brian Szytel recaps a positive market turnaround from Miami Beach after Hightower leadership meetings, with the Dow up about 280 points, the S&P up ~15 bps, and the Nasdaq up ~10 bps; year-to-date, the Dow is up ~5%, the S&P ~9%, and the Nasdaq ~13%. Rates were little changed with the 10-year around 4.56%, and WTI oil was slightly down amid reports of a potential Saudi-linked development in the Iran conflict. He discusses persistent core inflation across CPI, PPI, and PCE as demand growth outpaces supply growth alongside rising money supply, while maintaining the thesis of a 1% real Fed funds rate but with higher inflation expectations (now ~2.5–3%) implying a higher terminal Fed funds range. Economic data included slightly better housing starts (~1.5M), in-line jobless claims (209k), strong flash manufacturing PMI (55.3), and slightly softer services PMI (50.9), and he explains why markets focus on results versus expectations.
00:00 Welcome and Updates
00:52 Market Close Recap
01:44 Inflation and Fed Outlook
03:32 Today Economic Data
04:30 How to Read Data
05:33 Wrap Up and Thanks
05:53 Disclosures
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
