J.P. Morgan Slashes Its Gold Forecast, Zambia Reopens the Acid Pipeline to the DRC, A New DRC–US Cobalt Chain Takes Shape, and Zambia's State Miner Wants a Bigger Cut

Today on The Mining Insider:

J.P. Morgan revised its 2026 average gold price forecast sharply lower on Monday, cutting from $5,708/oz to $5,243 — a reduction of $465/oz. The bank cited low COMEX futures open interest, contracted trading volume, subdued managed fund positions, and limited ETF inflows. Gold has fallen 14% since the onset of the US-Iran conflict in late February. The sequence: the Hormuz disruption initially drove gold to near all-time highs, but oil above $100/bbl fed US CPI to 3.8% YoY for April, killing rate-cut expectations and strengthening the dollar. J.P. Morgan's revised forecast still implies significant recovery from the current ~$4,540 level but formally abandons the earlier bull case based on de-escalation and rate cuts.

Zambia's government authorized Chambishi Copper Smelter and Mopani Copper Mines to resume sulphuric acid exports to the DRC, easing restrictions in place since September 2025. DRC miners — the world's largest cobalt producer and second-largest copper producer — had cut acid usage and considered output reductions after Zambia's ban. Trade Minister Chipoka Mulenga confirmed local stocks had recovered: "We allowed them to export because local stocks have risen." Mopani will supply Glencore's DRC operations; Chambishi Copper Smelter will export to three Chinese-owned DRC mines. Alliswell Investment Limited separately authorized to ship 5,000 metric tonnes. Mopani had not yet received its physical permit as of last week. Zambia said export permissions could be widened if conditions continue to improve.

Trafigura, DRC state cobalt entity Entreprise Generale du Cobalt (EGC), and US firm EVelution Energy signed a tripartite MOU on May 13 at the Cobalt Congress in Madrid establishing a framework for long-term supply of Congolese cobalt hydroxide to the US. EVelution's Arizona facility (Yuma County) targets completion by end of 2029 with capacity to cover ~40% of projected US cobalt demand, producing battery-grade cobalt sulfate and alloy-grade cobalt metal. Trafigura handles logistics via the Lobito Atlantic Railway (in which Trafigura is a shareholder). Builds on the December 2025 US-DRC strategic minerals agreement. Construction on the Arizona plant expected to begin early 2027. Parties working toward definitive commercial agreements.

Zambia's ZCCM Investments Holdings publicly confirmed a strategy to increase minority stakes in the country's copper mines on strictly commercial terms — no forced divestiture. CEO Kakenenwa Muyangwa targets "significant minority" positions for operational influence. Current stakes as low as 10% in assets held by China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group, First Quantum Minerals, and Vedanta Resources. ZCCM-IH has already raised its Lubambe Copper Mines stake from 20% to 30%, and KoBold Metals' Mingomba from 20% to 25%. The company is replicating its Kansanshi royalty model (3.1% of revenue, ~$110M delivered since 2022) across other assets, shifting from dividends to predictable royalty cash flows.

Sources: J.P. Morgan via GuruFocus (May 18, 2026); Reuters via Kitco / TRT Afrika (Zambia acid, May 14); Trafigura press release (May 13, 2026); Reuters via Copperbelt Katanga Mining (ZCCM-IH, May 15, 2026).