Three Developments That Could Change Ukraine’s War

We examine three developments that could shape the next phase of Russia’s war against Ukraine: the dispute over diesel supplies, Russia’s preparations for a longer war, and the race between Ukraine’s technological advances and Russia’s attacks on energy infrastructure.

First, we challenge the claim that Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries are the main cause of diesel supply problems. We discuss the broader energy picture, Russian export restrictions, and the possibility of Washington restricting U.S. diesel exports. Then we examine Russia’s reported defense spending increase and efforts to obtain more soldiers—and what those preparations suggest about Putin’s intentions.

Finally, we distinguish two simultaneous races: the technological contest on the battlefield and Ukraine’s effort to strengthen air defense before Russia inflicts further damage on its cities and power grid. Tested interceptors offer reason for hope, but scaling production remains critical. Ukraine’s next few months may be difficult, and outside support could make a substantial difference.

00:00 Is Ukraine Being Blamed for the Diesel Problem?

01:27 Russian Export Restrictions and the Global Diesel Market

03:57 Could Washington Restrict U.S. Diesel Exports?

05:06 Russia’s Budget and Preparations for a Longer War

06:03 Where Will Putin Find More Soldiers?

08:40 Funding the War and Increasing External Pressure

10:09 Putin’s Annexation Narrative and the Question of Choice

12:55 Ukraine’s Battlefield Gains and Technology Race

13:47 Russia’s Attacks on Ukraine’s Energy Infrastructure

14:41 Two Races—and the Interceptor Production Gap

15:46 Air Defense Deliveries and Competing Global Demands

16:53 Can Ukraine Hold Out Until New Capabilities Scale?

17:59 The Difficult Months Ahead

19:21 Closing Thoughts and Ukraine Support Bridge

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