Amazon (company) (AMZN) — Neutral? Amazon Worth $25 or $200? The $220B Capex Paradox

Neutral on Amazon (company) (AMZN) as of 2026-11-18: -$42.4B TTM free cash flow. Amazon brought in $168.3B of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, yet reported free cash flow was -$42.4B. Here's how one call, whether AI capex counts as maintenance or growth, moves the estimated intrinsic value from $25.68 to about $199.53, and which return metric to track from here.

Chapters

(0:00) Amazon Q3 2026 Capex Paradox

(0:58) The Engine at Q3 2026 Scale

(1:58) The Cash Flow Reality

(5:25) Lens One: The Greenwald DCF

(8:48) Two Lenses, One Accounting Debate

(9:26) Lens Two: The SOTP Cross-Check

(10:53) The Margin of Safety Synthesis

(11:12) The AWS Infrastructure Moat

(12:19) Weighing Bull and Bear Realities

(13:18) Capital Allocation and Reinvestment

(17:22) The Margin of Safety Synthesis

(17:41) Watch: The Core Takeaway

(20:05) Tools for Value Investors

(20:44) Get the free apps

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