Anthropic (ANT) — Bearish? Anthropic's $1.4T IPO: 1,206% Growth, No Margin of Safety
Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives · Nov 10, 2026 · 22:05
Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives
Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives · Nov 10, 2026 · 22:05
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Bearish on Anthropic (ANT) as of 2026-11-13: $1.4T Fully diluted. Anthropic's S-1 shows $33.2B in nine-month revenue, about 900% net retention and $900.9B in compute commitments, yet the IPO asks $1.4 trillion, roughly 17x run-rate sales. With the roadshow opening this week, we read the filing the way Graham would to test whether any margin of safety is left at $70 to $78 a share.
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Chapters
(0:00) Anthropic IPO Valuation
(1:17) Core Business Model
(1:55) Enterprise Traction
(2:38) Competitive Reality
(3:18) Financial Reality
(3:55) Competitive Reality
(5:36) Financial Reality
(8:00) Core Business Model
(9:16) Capital Allocation
(10:41) Convexity Risk
(12:24) Share Structure
(14:17) Reverse-Engineering Valuation
(15:22) Mega-Cap Comparison
(16:03) Reverse-Engineering Valuation
(18:24) Price Zones Framework
(19:27) Investor Verdict
(20:26) Capital Allocation
(21:07) Intelligent Value Apps
(21:39) Get the apps
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