AI Earnings Up 57%, Cash Payouts at a 20-Year Low | Stock Market

Using Aswath Damodaran's numbers, we check why the market added $2.5 trillion in the same month the 10-year Treasury jumped to 5.29%, and why AI CapEx is pushing reported earnings well ahead of free cash flow. With the equity risk premium down to 3.70% and payouts at their lowest since 2004, the margin of safety is about as thin as it gets.

Chapters

(0:00) The AI CapEx Illusion

(0:38) The 2026 Market Paradox

(1:36) The September Rate Shock

(2:15) The Margin of Safety Paradox

(3:57) Earnings Concentration and Breadth

(4:16) The September Rate Shock

(5:00) Earnings Concentration and Breadth

(5:41) Builders vs Suppliers

(6:42) Earnings vs Free Cash Flow

(8:23) How AI CapEx Is Funded

(9:25) Payouts Hit a Two-Decade Low

(10:26) AI Bull vs Bear Case

(11:27) The Margin of Safety Paradox

(11:48) AI Bull vs Bear Case

(12:48) Markets Lead, Accounting Follows

(13:28) Structural Investing Rules

(14:09) Investor Pathways in the AI Era

(14:31) Financial and Human Capital

(14:52) Investor Pathways in the AI Era

(15:50) Financial and Human Capital

(16:46) Apps for Value Investors

(17:46) Get the free apps

DeepValues toolkit

• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free

• Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS)

• The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE

• Free research reports on 300+ companies

• Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst

• DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock

• Developer API for your AI agents

Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate.

• This episode on YouTube

Subscribe