$14T in 401(k)s Meets Private Equity's Exit Trap vs ASML | Stock Market

Executive Order 14330 opens the $14 trillion 401(k) pool to private equity just as the average PE deal sits 60% below its 2021 valuation. We compare that mark-to-myth trap with ASML's transparent EUV monopoly, and show why even a wide moat needs a mid-cycle, normalized valuation.

Chapters

(0:00) The PE Trap and the Ultimate Monopoly

(0:43) The Noise vs the Signal

(1:47) EO 14330: The Exit Valve

(2:07) Venture Capital Probability Funnel

(2:25) The Mark-to-Myth Haircut

(3:26) Public Moat vs Private Trap

(4:05) Sequoia vs S&P 500 Benchmark

(4:44) Public Moat vs Private Trap

(5:45) The Signal: ASML Holding

(6:08) How EUV Machines Print Chips

(7:09) ASML's Moat and Market Position

(7:50) Key Economics and Financials

(8:49) Geopolitical Risks and Limits

(9:27) Valuation: The Cyclical Trap

(10:05) The Value Architect's Takeaways

(10:44) Valuation: The Cyclical Trap

(11:05) Geopolitical Risks and Limits

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