Applied Materials (AMAT) — Bullish? Applied Materials Must Grow 23% a Year for Five Years
Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives · Nov 13, 2026 · 19:37
Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives
Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives · Nov 13, 2026 · 19:37
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Bullish on Applied Materials (AMAT) as of 2026-11-12: 23%/yr Implied annual growth. Applied Materials' price implies more than 23% growth a year for five years, while true owner earnings are $3.06 a share against $4.16 adjusted EPS. In a famously boom-and-bust industry, we test whether that bar leaves any margin of safety.
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Chapters
(0:00) Applied Materials Earnings Review
(4:14) Owner Earnings Breakdown
(6:13) Moat Trajectory Analysis
(8:15) Non-GAAP Reconciliation
(9:58) Owner Earnings Breakdown
(10:36) Moat Trajectory Analysis
(11:38) Non-GAAP Reconciliation
(13:41) 10-Year Owner Earnings
(14:43) DCF Valuation Assumptions
(16:06) Reverse DCF Margin of Safety
(17:46) Thesis Inversion Analysis
(18:27) Valuation Verdict
(19:12) Get the apps
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