Microsoft (MSFT) — Microsoft Drops Oracle Cloud: The $80B Rent Problem
Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives · Nov 7, 2026 · 18:14
Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives
Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives · Nov 7, 2026 · 18:14
Listen in the Podli app 🎧
Follow your favourite podcasts, listen offline and in the car with CarPlay and Android Auto, and always pick up where you left off. Free to try.
Deep value research on Microsoft (MSFT) as of 2026-11-10: $80B+ outside cloud. Microsoft is winding down its Oracle cloud deal and backing away from over $80 billion in rented AI capacity so it can own its data centers. We unpack what that reveals about AI capex, cash flow, and where a real margin of safety sits in tech.
• Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock
• Is the market overvalued? Buffett Indicator & Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE
Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE)
Chapters
(0:00) Financial Dossier: H1 2024
(1:02) The AI Scramble Phase
(1:41) Phasing Out Neoclouds
(2:45) Microsoft's Capex Explosion
(5:28) The Hardware Refresh Cycle
(6:06) Phasing Out Neoclouds
(6:47) The Hardware Arbitrage Strategy
(8:53) Oracle's Free Cash Flow Pressure
(10:28) The Big Picture Risks
(11:47) The Prepaid Mitigation Strategy
(13:11) The Hardware Arbitrage Strategy
(14:13) The Prepaid Mitigation Strategy
(15:12) Oracle's Free Cash Flow Pressure
(16:18) The Hardware Refresh Cycle
(17:21) Apps for Intelligent Value Investor
(17:49) Get the apps
Full open-source research report
DeepValues toolkit
• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free
• Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed)
Episodes: Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives
