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Is the Federal Reserve fighting the wrong battle?
On this episode of The Money Path, host Todd M. Schoenberger sits down with Scott Zelniker, Partner and Executive Managing Director–Wealth Management at Zelniker Dorfman Private Wealth, for a wide-ranging conversation about interest rates, the consumer, government debt, housing, artificial intelligence, semiconductors—and why he believes investors should become more prudent after years of powerful market gains.
Zelniker challenges the conventional inflation narrative. While headline employment numbers may look strong, he says conversations with business owners and clients tell a different story: conditions are getting tighter for companies and consumers. His argument is that today's oil-driven inflation pressure is fundamentally a supply shock, meaning higher interest rates may do little to solve the underlying problem while simultaneously increasing pressure from mortgages, credit cards and other borrowing costs.
The discussion then turns to America's roughly $40 trillion national debt. Zelniker argues that investors may be focusing too heavily on the headline debt number and not enough on something potentially more important: the cost of servicing it. He also explains why he believes lower short-term rates could increase demand for longer-duration Treasury securities and help create a steeper yield curve.
But his most provocative investment thesis may involve technology.
Zelniker says he's “not an AI guy as much as I'm a semiconductor guy.” His argument: investors have narrowed the semiconductor story too much around artificial intelligence. Whatever the next stage of the global economy becomes—AI, automobiles, defense, travel, communications or something investors haven't identified yet—semiconductor chips will remain embedded throughout it.
That doesn't mean chasing everything connected to AI. Zelniker favors profitable businesses with strong balance sheets and expresses concern about companies taking on significant debt without generating profits.
He also explains why his firm has allowed cash to build to roughly 10%–15% across client accounts instead of automatically reinvesting every maturity and dividend—and reveals the market signal he's watching before becoming more aggressive: the VIX. Zelniker says he wants to see genuine fear enter the market and points to a VIX above 30 as a level that gets his attention for putting capital back to work.
Plus: why 7% mortgages haven't crushed housing, how low-rate mortgages have effectively trapped existing homeowners, whether America can avoid stagflation, why data centers aren't going away, and what today's complacent market could mean for investors.
The big question: Is this the time to keep chasing the bull market—or build dry powder for the next real opportunity?
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