AI cut 16,000 U.S. jobs a month — what the Goldman Sachs report actually says

Key insight: Premium is growing, not shrinking, as demand outpaces supply

Jevons Paradox

Definition: Increased efficiency often raises total consumption because lower per-unit costs expand demand faster than efficiency reduces use.

Applied to AI:

• AI makes workers 2x productive → firm needs fewer workers per task
• But lower costs → more demand → potentially more workers in net

Current data:

• Augmentation roles: Jevons paradox is working (net +9,000 jobs/month)
• Substitution roles: Not working (companies taking cost savings, not expanding service)

The Apprenticeship Crisis

Problem: Junior roles serve two purposes:

1. Get work done
2. Train next generation of seniors

If AI does #1, who gets #2?

Evidence:

• Major law firms reduced associate hiring 25-40% since 2024
• Partners report higher margins
• Question: Who becomes partner in 2036?

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