Chalkboard Politics: What Just Happened in Brazil and the United States?

In the latest episode of Chalkboard Politics, the team explores these elections, shining a comparative politics lens on both Brazilian and American politics.  This episode features a discussion with Professors Cesar Zucco, an expert on Brazilian politics, and Professor Sarah Binder, who studies American politics and especially Congress. The conversation explores not only the election outcomes, but also compares and contrasts politics in Brazil and the U.S. in terms of political polarization, economic voting, social mobilization, and the contentious relationship between the executive and legislative branches. 

Professor Cesar Zucco is the Lemann Family Foundation Professor of Brazilian Studies and Professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia. His work focuses on Latin American politics, specifically voting behavior, the measurement of ideology, the political economy of public policy in Brazil, and the ideology of Brazilian elites. In this interview, he reveals insights into Brazil’s runoff presidential election, particularly the large swing towards incumbent leftist candidate Lula between the first and second round of elections. He highlights voters’ negative perception of the economy despite higher-than-average performance and the immense leftist mobilization in the few weeks between rounds as factors explaining the results. Importantly, he underscores the challenges Lula is likely to face from a right-wing majority in the Brazilian Congress throughout his term, including the possibility of impeachment.

Professor Sarah Binder is a senior fellow in Governance studies at Brookings, a professor of political science at George Washington University, a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and an American politics editor at the political science blog Good Authority. Her work focuses on the U.S. Congress, legislative politics, and Congress’s relationship with the Federal Reserve. In this conversation, she explores the implications of the Democratic Party’s sweeping victories across the midterm elections, particularly how visible blows to affordability led Republicans to mobilize to vote blue and how Democrats will attempt to lead from Congress without splintering their broad coalition or being overpowered by the president’s bully pulpit. Importantly, she emphasizes the question of how a diverse coalition of Democrats, ranging from Democratic Socialists to those who won in red states, will be able to form a coherent party agenda towards action.

In putting American politics in comparative political context, the discussion highlights the structural factors that led to the outcomes of both of these elections in Brazil and the U.S., as well as what these scholars expect to see in the near future given those results. They conclude that though these left-wing victories appear strong, they face opposition from other branches of government and are not guaranteed a successful nor a productive next few years. 

Episode Themes:

Possibility for swings even within a polarized electorate: 

Professor Binder highlights what she calls the “calcification” of American politics, in which the increasing sorting of the American electorate into political “tribes” leads people to vote for the party they feel they belong to, often regardless of the candidate. Despite this partisan polarization and the the shrinking population of “swing” voters, this election has shown us that there is still a possibility for wide swings in the behavior of the electorate in response to shifts in the economy: tribal politics is not all that matters. Professor Zucco draws a distinction here from Brazilian politics, in which there is a multiparty system. He notes, however, that the electorate has become increasingly divided between the Worker’s Party, Lula’s Party, and the anti- worker’s party camp which has been represented by many parties over time. He notes that while Americans swung heavily due to the economy, Brazilians seem to have underreacted to the economy in their voting behavior, which should have benefitted Lula more. Key words: polarization, swing voters, economic voting

Divided government and tension between the executive and legislative branches: 

While in the United States, there is a right wing Republican executive and a majority  Democratic Congress, in Brazil there is now a left-wing President and a majority right Congress. This presents challenges for the left wing victors in both countries. Professor Binder highlights President Trump’s likelihood to veto any legislation pushed by the Democratic majority, and the majority’s reliance on a few Republicans to work across the aisle. Professor Zucco also emphasizes that Lula is at the height of his popularity now, which will inevitably decline during his term. Lulu will be vulnerable to typical economic shocks, which could, in turn, lead to impeachment from a right-wing majority in Congress. Both Trump and Lula have faced unsuccessful pushes for impeachment before, but there is a risk that opposition parties will seize on the opportunity again. Key words: Divided government, impeachment

Coalition-building: 

Both professors highlight the importance of coalition-building in the politics of Brazil and the U.S. Professor Zucco explains that in Brazil, the left wing Worker’s Party led by Lula has been opposed by a loose coalition of anti-Lula groups, which have been represented by different parties and different leaders over time. Now that Flavio Bolsonaro has fled Brazil following his loss, the opposition coalition is without representation. In the United States, Professor Binder highlights that the winning party successfully forged a  coalition, with Democratic Socialists coming together with establishment Dem