FSD: Let’s Make a Deal — Lumida Wealth : Non-Consensus Invest Beyond the Ordinary

In this FSD episode, let's make a deal, a nod to the Strait of Hormuz standoff and the memorandum of understanding. Back from travel and catching up on a stack of topics, the opening argument is that the Strait of Hormuz was always a nothingburger that got priced in long ago, oil is falling, and that's a tailwind for an already-strong US consumer and consumer discretionary names. From there it moves through the politics driving health care and Medicare Advantage stocks, a critical take on the government's Fable and Mythos restrictions as federal overreach, and a hard warning on SpaceX at 130 times sales as a low-float retail trap. The through-line is that retail sold quality names like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta to fund the SpaceX bid, so the move is to buy what they dumped. Closes with new Lumida app features and a personal reflection on Band of Brothers and leading from the front.

(00:00) Back in the saddle and the Strait of Hormuz "nothingburger"
(02:00) Oil falling, the strong US consumer, and retail stocks
(03:30) Trump wanting deals before the bicentennial and midterms
(05:00) Health care and Medicare Advantage rallying on midterm odds
(06:30) Fable and Mythos restrictions as federal government overreach
(09:00) SpaceX at 130x sales and the Tesla IPO comparison
(11:30) The retail sentiment cycle and the airport SpaceX anecdote
(13:00) Buying what retail dumped: Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta
(15:00) IPO issuance is manageable vs the 2021 cycle
(16:00) Oil down as a boon for emerging markets, and bargains in Brazil
(17:30) A strong bull market: earnings, disinflation, productivity
(19:00) Rick Rieder and BlackRock turning bullish
(20:30) The Goldman momentum-overbought study and mean reversion ahead
(22:00) The barbell approach and a Genie (sports betting) example
(24:00) Quality animal spirits and holding for long-term gains
(25:30) Medicare Advantage, health care equipment, and buying Expedia
(28:00) Why brands matter more now: the Peter Lynch sixth-graders story
(30:00) Retail vs money-manager sentiment bifurcation
(31:30) Watching momentum: rotating out of AMD and Texas Instruments
(33:30) Holding Micron, DRAM, and SK Hynix on valuation
(35:00) A longevity detour: blue zones, fish diets, and salmon
(36:30) The Knicks, animal spirits, and sports fandom as a market emotion
(39:00) Behavioral biases, the Stoics, and why volatile spirits hurt decisions
(42:00) New Lumida app features: insider, politician, and hedge fund alerts
(44:00) Band of Brothers, D-Day, and leading from the front

About the show: Non-Consensus Investing is Ram Ahluwalia's running commentary on markets, where he shares how he's actually positioning capital and talks through the ideas most investors are missing. Real-time analysis, specific names, and a bias toward what's overlooked rather than what's crowded.

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