Treading Water

The big things you need to know: First, there was very little change last week in the stats we monitor to track reporting season, aside from the continued drift lower in the bottom-up consensus 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast to a little below $271. Second, uncertainty, policy, tariffs, and FX remained in focus in last week’s earnings calls. Third, we continued to find evidence of weakening vibes in the latest updates from the AAII investor survey, the NFIB Small Business sentiment survey update, and EPFR funds flows.