Walking Through The Math Behind Our Updated S&P 500 Forecasts

RBC's Markets in Motion · Mar 17, 2025 · 6:49

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The big things you need to know:

We’ve lowered our YE 2025 S&P 500 price target to 6,200 from 6,600,
We’ve lowered our 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast to $264 from $271.
Among other adjustments, our new price target and EPS forecast embed the updated views of RBC’s Economics and Rates strategy team which were released last week.
We have updated our year-end 2025 bear case for the S&P 500, which we’ve lowered from 5,775 to 5,550.
Fourth, some of the vibes we've been tracking are starting to look too extreme to us (in terms of their negativity), but others have more room to go lower.