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Lonte Smith and Dave Essler talk betting for CFB Week 5 Lonte Smith and Uncle Dave Essler return for the Week 5 edition of RJ Bell's Dream Preview, College Football Edition, determined to bounce back from the first 0 and 2 week of the season while keeping the overall best bet record in the black, with Lonte at 2 and 2 and Dave at 3 and 1. At 1:58 the show opens with number 7 Alabama visiting Mississippi State at Davis Wade Stadium, where the Tide opened 6.5 point favorites before the line dipped to 5.5 or 6 and the total climbed to 60.5. Dave warns against recency bias after Alabama scored 50 on Florida State, pointing out that the Seminoles also scored 36 and piled up nearly 500 yards on that defense, and with Georgia coming to Tuscaloosa next week he takes the Mississippi State team total over. Lonte backs the Bulldogs in the first half, citing their first 4 and 0 start since 2014, a defense allowing 3.2 yards per carry, three straight 100 yard games from Fluff Bothwell and the blitz chess match between Kane Wommack and Kamario Taylor. At 6:53 the hosts turn to Virginia at Florida State, and both like the home underdog, with Lonte projecting a 23 to 20 grinder fueled by Ashton Daniels running the football and Dave calling it a potential career defining game for Mike Norvell ahead of trips to Louisville and Miami. At 10:14 Alex Golesh returns to Neyland Stadium as the Auburn head coach to face Josh Heupel, and Dave takes the Tennessee team total over after the Vols managed only 2.9 yards per play against Texas, while Lonte breaks down the North Carolina quarterback duel between Byrum Brown and Faizon Brandon and notes Auburn ranks among the worst coverage teams in the Power 4. At 15:06 Baylor at Arizona State gets labeled a volatile game, sharp money has pushed the line toward the Bears and the total down from 51 to 49.5, and both hosts land on the under while Dave admits he cannot get behind DJ Lagway. At 19:59 number 8 Florida visits Missouri laying 4.5, Dave calls the Tigers a paper tiger after they allowed almost 500 yards to Mississippi State and goes back to the Florida team total over after cashing it last week, and Lonte highlights Jadan Baugh and more than 600 rushing yards with 11 touchdowns before leaning to the over. At 25:20 Dave delivers his best bet, Wake Forest minus 12.5 over a Stanford team traveling east for the second time in three weeks, and at 27:34 Lonte answers with UConn plus 6.5 against Syracuse, pointing to the strong underdog record of Jason Candle, a power rating closer to 4 and deep familiarity between the two coaching staffs. The episode closes with a rapid fire round at 29:52 covering Notre Dame at North Carolina, Minnesota and Michigan, Ohio State at Iowa, Pitt and Virginia Tech, Louisville at NC State and Miami against Clemson, with team total unders, a Louisville and NC State over and a blunt verdict on whether Clemson can keep it close. Bet responsibly, shop for the best number and catch every weekly college football betting breakdown from the Pregame.com crew.
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