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Summary - Timelines to superintelligence without any slowdown interventions look very short now, perhaps with a median in early 2028. AI will likely dramatically automate and accelerate AI research in 2027.
- This means that in a substantial share of worlds where the leading AGI company doesn’t solve alignment during an intelligence explosion, avoiding catastrophe requires aggressive pacing or a pause on development in the next 6 to 12 months.
- If this is true, by far the most promising approaches to reducing the risk of catastrophe for nontechnical people (and plausibly many technical people) seem to be:
- Lab advocacy: Lab-facing work that is designed to achieve aggressive pacing or a pause without government involvement in the next 6 to 12 months.
- California lobbying: Policy advocacy targeting the California state government that is designed to get a law passed or an executive order issued that implements aggressive pacing or a pause within 6 to 12 months.
- Federal lobbying: If there's a major incident roughly an order of magnitude more severe than the Hugging Face incident in the next 6 months, then lobbying Congress or the Trump administration to respond to such an event with aggressive pacing or a pause.
- In [...]
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Outline:(00:10) Summary
(02:52) Timelines to ASI are very short now
(06:40) Three paths to pausing or pacing within 6-12 months
(12:28) Technical work that seems most valuable
(15:07) Laying the technical foundations for a pause
(17:14) What should you do?
(21:19) FAQs and Objections
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First published:
November 13th, 2026
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/biFHYdJnMSCmW9Xou/three-plans-for-12-month-timelines
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Narrated by
TYPE III AUDIO.
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