The View Beyond: Our mid-year outlook for markets — Moving Markets

As global markets adjust to a world where capital is no longer abundant, investors face new challenges and opportunities. How should they adapt their portfolios, and what are the most compelling prospects for the second half of 2026?

Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, join Bernadette Anderko to discuss Julius Baer’s mid-year market outlook. The conversation dissects the shift from a savings glut to a savings grab, and focuses on why selectivity and capital discipline are paramount. Mark and Christian explain the outlook for equities and fixed income, investigating not just sectors but also regions of interest, together with the case for investment grade and emerging market debt, and the ongoing impact of AI and clean energy themes. They also review the prospects for commodities, gold, and currencies as investors position themselves for the remainder of the year.

(00:00) - Introduction and agenda
(00:55) - From a ‘savings glut’ to a ‘savings grab’
(02:16) - Be selective amidst capital expenditure opportunities
(03:03) - Bond yields, duration, and global opportunities
(05:33) - Credit quality and emerging market debt
(06:49) - US vs. non-US markets
(08:07) - European equity dynamics
(08:59) - AI, Asia, and regional drivers
(10:14) - Cloud computing, AI, clean energy
(11:24) - Commodities: Super shock vs. super cycle
(12:53) - Gold outlook
(14:04) - US dollar, yen, and commodity currencies
(15:08) - Key takeaways, closing remarks and legal information

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