Signals & Noise: Updating the Outlook—Growth Up and Policy Tightening Ahead

In this episode of Signals & Noise, we unpack the latest midyear updates to global economic forecasts, including a modest upgrade to global growth and a downward revision to inflation.

Despite easing headline inflation, policy remains tight, with our economists now expecting a more hawkish Federal Reserve than consensus. We explore the drivers behind this shift, including resilient labor market dynamics and persistent core inflation.

We also discuss the impact of the Iran deal on energy markets, the role of AI-driven exports in supporting global growth, particularly in Asia, and why the U.S. economy continues to outperform other developed markets.

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