Locked On SEC Picks LSU 38-23 | I Think He's Wrong And Here's Why

Every preview of LSU–Ole Miss has been about Lane Kiffin walking back into Oxford. That's not the question. The question is a number Chris Gordy brought onto the show: through two games LSU ranks first in the SEC in yards allowed, and Ole Miss ranks dead last. The Ole Miss half of that is real — Louisville got twelve explosive plays for 340 yards. But LSU's half was built against a Clemson team that then scored one touchdown against Georgia Southern, and a Louisiana Tech team that isn't a measuring stick. One of these defenses has already been exposed and knows what to fix. The other one finds out live.

Two days to LSU.

Steven Willis is joined by Chris Gordy of Locked On SEC for the crossover, and they end up in completely different places — Willis on Ole Miss 35-31, Gordy on LSU 38-23. In between: the coin-toss decision neither of them could settle, the three offensive wrinkles Ole Miss hasn't put on tape yet, the third receiver who decides this thing, and why both hosts think the whole game comes down to about four plays nobody can name in advance.

⏱️ CHAPTERS
0:00 Storylines and stakes
1:42 "If LSU says the sky's blue, Ole Miss says it's red"
3:15 Why week three is a mercy for both teams
4:50 Does bulletin board material matter in a game this big?
5:38 Billy Cannon, Halloween night, and why it's the Magnolia Bowl
6:26 The chess match when both staffs know everything
7:01 This game comes down to four plays
8:54 Should Ole Miss defer if they win the toss?
9:22 LSU is first in the SEC in yards allowed. Ole Miss is last.
10:16 Players to watch
10:21 Engagement + sponsors
10:59 Wayfair
12:12 Pants Store
14:22 Caleb Cunningham and the third-receiver problem
15:18 Who are LSU's number two and number three?
17:33 The training wheels come off
18:26 Over/under 7.5 designed Chambliss runs
20:25 Is there a Deuce Knight package in this game?
20:50 Engagement + sponsors
21:21 Kalshi
22:34 Square
24:01 Paths to victory
24:06 LSU's front seven and the five-sack problem
25:18 What happens if LSU leads at halftime
26:43 Why LSU doesn't know its own soft spot
27:00 Steven's prediction
27:53 Chris Gordy's prediction
29:10 Two days out

📌 THREE THINGS

1. The stat of the week cuts both ways. LSU first in the SEC in yards allowed, Ole Miss last — and Gordy put the caveat on it himself in the same breath. What it actually measures is schedule. Ole Miss has been punched in the mouth and knows exactly what is broken in the back end. LSU has not trailed, has not been tested, and does not yet know where its own soft spot is. Saturday night in a full stadium is a rough place to find out.

2. Three Ole Miss wrinkles have not been on tape once this season, and none of them were needed against Louisville or Charlotte: designed quarterback runs for Trinidad Chambliss, the jet sweep, and a package for Deuce Knight, who is six-five and two-thirty and hurdled a defender in this stadium two weeks ago. John David Baker has played two quarterbacks at the same time before, at East Carolina. Gordy set the over-under at seven and a half designed Chambliss runs. Willis is taking the over.

3. If LSU takes a lead into the second half, Gordy does not think this ends as a three-point game: "He's petty enough to put the foot on the gas pedal. If they smell blood in the water, we're gonna really put the exclamation point on this." Willis's answer was that it runs both ways — if Ole Miss is up ten in the third quarter, Ole Miss is stepping on it too. Nobody is calling off the dogs on Saturday, whichever way it breaks.

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