The Blob Hit California's Kelp. Protected Kelp Came Back Faster.

In 2014, just two years after California finished its statewide network of marine protected areas, a marine heatwave known as The Blob settled over the Pacific coast and stayed for two years. Kelp forests collapsed up and down the state, and sea star wasting disease wiped out sea stars on a scale few scientists had seen. For a network built partly to protect kelp habitat, it was the worst possible first test.

Andrew Lewin walks through what the state learned when it checked. California's first Decadal Management Review pulled together long-term monitoring across kelp forests, rocky reefs, the intertidal, sandy beaches, and more, producing seven technical reports plus an independent synthesis from the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis so the state wasn't grading its own work. A UCLA-led study in the Journal of Applied Ecology then used nearly four decades of satellite imagery to show that kelp inside MPAs recovered better after the heatwave than similar unprotected coastline, most clearly in Southern California.

The reason comes down to predators. Inside MPAs, California sheephead and spiny lobster were protected from fishing and kept urchins in check, so recovering kelp beds weren't mowed down into urchin barrens. Andrew covers the 2023 recommendations that came out of the review, how the Ocean Protection Council is folding them into California's 30x30 commitment, and why he'd like to see these assessments happen every five years instead of every ten. Thursday, the series turns to who gets heard in what happens next.

Takeaways:

• The 2014 to 2016 marine heatwave (The Blob) and El Niño hit two years after California completed its MPA network, collapsing kelp forests statewide.
• California's first MPA Decadal Management Review, released by CDFW in January 2023 with the Ocean Protection Council, drew on long-term monitoring across multiple habitats.
• The review produced seven technical reports and one synthesis report, with the synthesis led by an outside group, NCEAS, for independent perspective.
• A UCLA-led study in the Journal of Applied Ecology used satellite imagery from 1984 to 2022 and found kelp inside MPAs recovered better after the heatwave than matched unprotected sites, most clearly in Southern California.
• The likely mechanism is a trophic cascade: protected sheephead and spiny lobster keep urchin populations from exploding into kelp-eating barrens.
• CDFW's recommendations are organized around MPA governance, the MPA management program, and overall network performance.
• The network covers 16% of state waters across 124 MPAs, and the Ocean Protection Council is treating it as a foundation for California's 30x30 goal.
• Regular, checkable assessments show where protection is working and make the case for expanding it.

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