Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Is The Biggest Wildcard Of The 2026 Midterms + RFK Jr. Is Making Measles Great Again

With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process. 

Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections

06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months

07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day

08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day

09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans

10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House

11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans

12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats

14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map

14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate

16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate

17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle

18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago

18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year

19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas

21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats

21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses?

22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat

24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against

26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable

27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent

29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not

30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war

31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval

32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party

34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance

35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014

36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans

37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s tro