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Guy Adami and Liz Thomas discuss historic moves in U.S. Treasuries, with yields jumping 20 bps in two days, the 5-year above 5%, and the average Treasury yield above 5%, signaling a new inflationary regime and forcing investors to rethink allocations. Despite higher discount rates, stocks have held up due to a rotation back into mega-cap tech and AI-driven CapEx supporting GDP expectations, even as the bond market “story” looks ominous. Thomas outlines a “balance by extremes” approach—overweight AI/tech while holding 10-year Treasuries, gold, and commodities—and warns a prolonged war and $90+ oil could push the Fed into hikes that risk recession. They debate gold’s outlook amid technical pressure and reduced central-bank buying, and review banks rolling over as a flatter curve squeezes net interest margins and weaker deal-flow expectations pressure investment banks. They also flag midterm-election volatility, with healthcare favored, and note Tony Robbins appeared on “The Important Part.”
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